USDA 10-Year Income and Trade Projections

The USDA is preparing to issue its Agricultural Projections to 2028 report next month. Some of the tables they’ll use to come up with the projections were issued last week. Looking at 2019, USDA projects crop receipts to reach $200 billion, up slightly from last year. Direct government payments, including those from the Market Facilitation Program, are projected to drop by $13 billion from a year ago, coming in at $10.2 billion this year. Total expenses are projected to drop by 1.5 percent from 2018. The University of Illinois’ Farm Policy News says based on the overall projections for receipts and expenses, USDA projects 2019 farm income at $77.6 billion, up from 69.2 billion a year ago. Crop receipts and total expenses are projected to rise even into 2020. Net farm income is projected to hold stable, somewhere between $75.6 billion and $79.5 billion through 2028. In other USDA projections, the agency doesn’t expect soybean exports to return to pre-trade war peak levels until the 2026-2027 growing season. The reason is due to South American soybean competitors who gain global market share. However, the projections in the USDA outlook assume that China’s retaliatory tariffs stay in place.

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