Dr. Lawrence Kuznar is an anthropology professor at IPFW he works with a consortium of social scientists and government analysts in response to requests for information that come from combatant commanders.
He offers these notes on ISIS/Daesh
Little Known Facts about Daesh
Daesh is Not New
• 1998 – Began by Abu Musab al Zawahiri as Jama’at al Tawhid wal-Jihad – too extreme for al Qaeda; wanted a jihad against Shia Muslims and the West to provoke the Apocalypse – have not deviated from this objective
• 2004 pledges allegiance to bin Laden and al Qaeda, becomes AQI
• 2013 becomes ad–Dawlah al-Islāmiyah ī'l–ʿIrāq wa–ash-Shām,= Daesh = ISIS = ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and Sham)
• 2014 June 29 declares Abu Bakr al Baghdadi the Caliph of ad–Dawlah al– Islāmiyah, IS Caliphate
What’s a Caliphate?
• Succession to Prophet Muhammed’s governance of all Muslims
• Daesh’s declaration of a Caliphate (Succession) alienates Daesh from virtually all Muslims world and scholars must agree
o According to Islam, you cannot just declare a Caliphate, the Islamic
Daesh Goals (More or less sequential, and they have behaved accordingly):
1. Purify Sunni Islam (get rid of apostates and hypocrites) to an extreme Salafist
/ Jihadist form of Islam – Daesh fighters comprise about .003% of Muslims; Sunnis allowed to repent and be saved, all others are condemned
2. Eliminate Shia (~25% of Muslims), they are unredeemable, not even Muslim a. Daesh has basically declared war on all Muslims (takfir)
3. Oppose all shirk (polytheists), atheists, secularists (Christians, Jews, etc.
4. Bring about the End of Times – Dabiq (declared a Caliphate because they claim that the end of times cannot occur until the Caliphate is restored – Caliphate is only a means to a final end)
5. Fight an Apocalyptic battle at Dabiq that will bring about Jesus’ second coming; Jesus will defeat all of the Caliphate’s enemies and purify the earth
Daesh Strategy
• Sow discord (fitna) among all their enemies – both to weaken enemies and to get enemies to fight one another, to get enemies to persecute Sunni Muslims so that Daesh can radicalize them.
• It has worked for them regionally and now with US, Turkey and Russia – we are doing what THEY want so that THEY can succeed.
Regional Context:
• Our toppling of Saddam Hussein unleashed sectarian conflict in Iraq between
Sunni tribes, Shia (majority), Kurds that were exploited by Islamic extremists
• AQI allied with Sunni tribes against US, but were so brutal, the tribes rebelled against AQI and nearly exterminated them in the Anbar Awakening; but US
was obliged to turn over operations to Shia-led GoI, who proceeded to oppress Sunni tribes – AQI survived to rise again.
• The Arab Spring unleashed sectarian conflict in Syria between Assad’s constituents (Alawite, Christian, Druze, moderate Sunni Muslims), pro- Democracy secularists, Islamic extremists of many different factions, and Kurds.
• Daesh exploited this regional melt-down to create a political and geographic space into which they could insert themselves to take power and get Sunni tribes to acquiesce in return for establishing order
• The strong majority of Sunni under Daesh rule does not want them there (sociologists have conducted phone surveys within Daesh territory, so we know this), but they are not strong enough now to resist; if they could rebel against Daesh, all of their neighbors would prey upon them. This is our dilemma.
None of this is opinion – teams of researchers have pieced this together systematically and scientifically – this is the reality we face.
The President’s strategy is the one given to him by military experts
Politicians’ simplistic pronouncements are not only ill-founded and counter- productive, but they are EXACTLY what Daesh wants them to say.
Finally, DON’T FORGET AL QAEDA! We run the risk of forgetting that they still exist and want to do us harm.
What Can We, the American People, Do?
Do not live in fear – That is what terrorists want. Fear and paranoia cause us to:
• Persecute the people Daesh wants to radicalize
• Over-react and be manipulated by our enemy (Ian Lustick, Trapped in the War on Terror)
o When you are in a fight, you hit and get hit – your success depends on
what you do when you are hit; if you over-react, or react the way your enemy wants you to, you lose
• In a word, toughen up, it’s a fight
Realize that this is Our War, we must own it
• Do not expect to be 100% protected or to not be impacted by the fight
• Be patient – asymmetric warfare always takes time and there are no easy solutions (Lt. Col. John Nagl Eating Soup with a Knife)
• Be vigilant while respecting others’ rights (DHS – If You See Something, Say
Something Program http://www.dhs.gov/see-something–say-something)
• Respect Military Professionals
o If you want to act tough, are you ready to go? Don’t simply expect military personnel to solve problems, and realize that all solutions
have a cost, in lives, money and risk (see James Fallows’ Chicken Hawk Nation, Atlantic Monthly http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/01/the–
tragedy–of-the–american-military/383516/)
o Special Operations Forces are the experts in dealing with irregular warfare, and our current strategy is based on their recommendations (see Army Counterinsurgency Manual FM 3-24 (http://usacac.army.mil/cac2/Repository/Materials/COIN-FM3–
24.pdf)– respect their professionalism
Hold Politicians Accountable for What They Say
• National Security professionals utilize DIME (Diplomatic, Information, Military and Economic) levers of power; If any politician say’s he or she has a solution, if it does not include each of these elements, then it is no feasible solution
• If a politician suggests a strategy to combat Daesh, or any form of jihadist terrorism, ask these simple, reasonable questions:
o How much it costs in blood and treasure? How do we pay for it?
o Why it would work? How do they know?
o How it would be done?
o What are the down-sides (there always are, there is no perfect solution to anything)?
o If it is something that has been done before and did not work, then
why would it work now?
• If the politician’s answer is “I don’t know,” or if there is no answer – disregard that politician’s suggestion and credibility on the issue. Don’t vote for that person. Likewise, send a letter to an elected official who fails these simple tests and demand that he or she take the issue seriously.
• None of these questions and demands are political – they are 100% practical and based on governmental and military best practices, and a lot of good social science
If Americans did these simple things, it would:
• Harden – Harden us as a target and minimize the effect of any terrorist acts that might occur
• Encourage – Encourage feasible strategies, not just slogans
• Sustain – Sustain these strategies and keep our leaders focused on the problem
• Win – Because of our political stability, economic and military power would certainly lead to success and the defeat of Daesh, al Qaeda and other jihadists who threaten us and create havoc in the world
