Indiana Historical Stats Point to Huge Wins
1) Indiana Presidential voting from 1972 through 2008 averages this:
Republican 1,260,000
Democrat 900,000
2) The 1992 race collapsed Bush 41 when Perot received 455,934 in Indiana and then in 1996 Perot received 224, 297.
The Democrat vote for those two elections over the two previous ones actually increased, while the Republicans collapsed. Meaning that the Republican average margin of 360,000 is actually understated.
3) In 2012 McCain exceeded the Republican average (1,345,000) though slightly below the adjusted average if the Perot years were taken out.
4) In 2012 Obama received 1,374,000, out-performing the Democrat average by 474,000! Only Jimmy Carter in 1976 topped one million (Carter received 1,014,000) in the last 40 years.
With early reports suggested some urban centers are not voting in the same numbers pre-election day or today, this could be a landslide. Turnout and where flips all polls. Common liberal error.
The Goshen News, for example, reported the same thing that we see in Fort Wayne: last election the Obama forces (mostly coming in from Chicago) were using buses to transport voters in Elkhart County. Have not seen that this time.
2008 was a incredible historic breakthrough, under appreciated by white Americans. It wasn't just that American elected its first President of African-American heritage. This is not like electing the first female, and other categories. Listening at the inauguration, many felt that whites would never "allow it to happen." So it was an incredible celebration.
The President continues to inspire his ethnic base but it is not the same for turnout. It may be above normal, but not as high.
My best guess is that Romney tops 1.4 million approaching the 2004 Bush total of nearly 1.5 million. Obama may top one million, maybe, but not 1.1.
While tonight we will be watching Romney to Mourdock drop-off in votes, unless they actually transfer to Donnelly as opposed to skipping the vote (Libertarian or skipping Senator), Mourdock will likely win by at least 2%.
Where the turnout is will matter, not just the turnout.