April Weather Outlook??? Created by rrummel on 3/27/2014 4:26:05 PM
More of the same
Indiana farmers getting ready for
spring planting can get a good idea of what they most likely will have to work
with in April just by looking across their fields now. Wet or dry conditions they see are
unlikely to change much over the month, said State Climatologist based at Purdue
University. If the soils are in good shape now, they should be ready for
planting on time. But for fields that are too wet now, farmers can expect
planting delays."Our best indication of the trend
at this stage is persistence in weather patterns we have been
experiencing," Niyogi said. "We do not see anything drastically
changing in the short term."Niyogi said the weather likely will
change toward more favorable conditions in the latter half of the growing
season when an El Nino warming trend is expected to develop."This change comes on
slowly," he said. "It takes several months before we get a good grip
on trends."For April, the average temperature
could be about 2 to 4.5 degrees below normal for the month, with the worst
cases in southern counties, according to an analysis by Ken Scheeringa
, associate state
climatologist. He reviewed temperatures over the past century and weather
models of the U.S. Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center
which believes that the winter pattern will continue over the U.S.
While the average temperature would be
below normal, Scheeringa noted that it would show a trend toward moderation
relative to the two previous months. Indiana's average temperature in February
was about 8.7 degrees below normal, and March was running 6.6 degrees below
Looking ahead through the end of June,
Scheeringa said the average temperatures for the three months could be 0.4
degrees to 2.7 degrees below normal, with the worst cases again in the south.
Providing an outlook for precipitation
is more difficult because there are no strong climatic signals for April,
Scheeringa said. But he said if the cold pattern continues, Indiana could
expect more of the Alberta clipper-type systems, which tend to carry less
moisture when they go through the state.
Purdue Extension corn specialist Bob Nielsen said corn farmers
should not be overly concerned about the weather forecast for spring planting.
That is because planting date by itself has "little predictive power"
for absolute yield potential.
"Yield is determined by the
cumulative effects of the season-long multitude of yield-influencing
factors," Nielsen said. "Growers should simply 'go with the flow' and
deal with what Mother Nature gives them."
Although soybeans typically are planted
after corn, Extension soybean specialist Shaun Casteel said soybeans are more responsive to timely
planting than is corn. If farmers are delayed in planting corn until late April
or early May, he said soybeans should be planted at the same time.
"Late April to early May planting
of soybeans is more critical for soybeans than for corn," he said.