USDA's March Supply & Demand Created by rrummel on 3/10/2014 3:58:56 PM
Traders rate it 'Neutral'
The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report
was released Monday. Here are some of the highlights.
COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. feed grain ending
stocks for 2013-14 are reduced with higher corn exports and lower oats imports.
Corn exports are projected 25-million bushels higher on stronger world imports
and the rising pace of shipments in recent weeks. Continued strong export sales
also support the higher figure. Projected corn ending stocks are lowered
25-million bushels. Oats imports are projected 10-million bushels lower. Small
reductions in U.S. oats domestic use and ending stocks are projected. The
season-average farm price for corn is narrowed five-cents on both ends of the
projected range to $4.25 to $4.75 per bushel. Price ranges are similarly
narrowed for sorghum and oats. The barley farm price is raised 10-cents on the
low end of the range to $5.95 to $6.25 per bushel based on recently higher
reported prices for feed barley.
coarse grain supplies for 2013-14 are projected 1.4-million tons higher. Global
coarse grain imports for 2013-14 are raised 1.3-million tons. Global coarse
grain ending stocks for 2013-14 are raised slightly.
OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use projections for
2013-14 include higher imports and exports, reduced crush and reduced ending
stocks compared with last month’s report. Soybean exports are raised 20-million
bushels to a record 1.53-billion reflecting continued strong sales and
shipments through February. Soybean crush is reduced 10-million bushels to
1.69-billion reflecting weaker-than-expected domestic soybean meal use through
the first quarter of the marketing year. Soybean stocks are projected at
145-million bushels - down five-million from last month. Soybean oil stocks are
reduced on lower production and increased exports. Other soybean oil changes
include reduced use for biodiesel and an offsetting increase for food, feed,
and other industrial use. Soybean and soybean product prices are all projected
higher this month. The season-average price range forecast for soybeans is
raised 25-cents on both ends of the range to $12.20 to $13.70 per bushel.
Soybean oil prices are forecast at 36 to 39-cents per pound - up 1.5-cents at
the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are projected at $450 to $490 per short ton -
up 25-dollars at the midpoint.
oilseed production for 2013-14 is projected at 504.3-million tons - down
1.7-million from last month - as reduced soybean and copra production are only
partly offset by increases for rapeseed, sunflowerseed and peanuts. Foreign production
- projected at 407-million tons - accounts for all of the change. Global
oilseed supplies, exports and ending stocks for 2013-14 are projected lower
this month - while crush is projected higher. Global oilseed stocks are
projected at 84-million tons - down 1.9-million.
WHEAT: There are no changes to the 2013-14 U.S. all
wheat supply and use projections this month. A 15-million bushel increase in
projected Hard Red Spring wheat exports is offset by a decrease for Soft Red
Winter wheat - with both changes reflecting the pace of sales and shipments.
Projected ending stocks for both classes are adjusted accordingly. The
projected season-average farm price for all wheat is raised 10-cents on the
bottom end of the range to $6.75 to $6.95 per bushel based on recent strength
2013-14 wheat supplies are raised slightly with a 0.8-million ton increase in
world production. Strong demand in the Middle East and North Africa boosts
2013-14 world wheat imports three-million tons. World wheat consumption is
raised slightly for 2013-14. Global wheat ending stocks are nearly unchanged.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2014
forecast of total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as
higher beef production is more than offset by lower pork, broiler, and turkey
production. For beef - continued relatively large cattle placements in the
first quarter are expected to result in higher slaughter in 2014. Coupled with
heavier carcass weights and higher expected first-quarter cow slaughter - the
beef production forecast is raised. Pork production is reduced from last month
as higher carcass weights are insufficient to offset tighter supplies of hogs.
USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 28. Broiler
production is lowered as hatchery data points to slower growth in eggs set and
chicks placed. Turkey production is reduced as January slaughter and hatchery data
were below expectations. Egg production forecasts for 2014 are unchanged - but
historical data are adjusted to reflect recently published data. The beef
import forecast for 2014 is unchanged from last month - but the export forecast
is raised on strong sales to Asian markets. Pork imports are raised as prices
are forecast higher - but the export forecast is reduced as high prices are
expected to constrain sales. The broiler export forecast is raised as January
exports were higher-than-expected. Turkey exports are lowered. The egg export
forecast is unchanged. Cattle prices for 2014 are raised from last month -
reflecting tight supplies and continued price strength for fed cattle. The hog
price forecast is raised on expected tight supplies of market hogs and strong
demand. Broiler and turkey prices are largely unchanged but the egg price is
raised on higher first-quarter prices.
milk production forecast for 2014 is unchanged from last month - but historical
data are adjusted to reflect revised data for 2012 and 2013. Fat-basis exports
for 2014 are raised on higher sales of cheese and butter. Skim-solid exports
are unchanged as lower lactose and weaker-than-expected early year sales of
nonfat dry milk (NDM) offset gains in cheese. Fat-basis imports are unchanged.
Skim-solid imports are raised on strong demand for milk protein concentrates.
Product price forecasts for cheese, butter, NDM and whey are higher - supported
by strong demand and price strength to date. Class III and Class IV prices are
raised on higher product prices. The all milk price is forecast at $21.40 to
$22.00 per cwt.