USDA's March Supply & Demand

USDA's March Supply & Demand
Created by rrummel on 3/10/2014 3:58:56 PM

Traders rate it 'Neutral'

The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report was released Monday. Here are some of the highlights.

COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2013-14 are reduced with higher corn exports and lower oats imports. Corn exports are projected 25-million bushels higher on stronger world imports and the rising pace of shipments in recent weeks. Continued strong export sales also support the higher figure. Projected corn ending stocks are lowered 25-million bushels. Oats imports are projected 10-million bushels lower. Small reductions in U.S. oats domestic use and ending stocks are projected. The season-average farm price for corn is narrowed five-cents on both ends of the projected range to $4.25 to $4.75 per bushel. Price ranges are similarly narrowed for sorghum and oats. The barley farm price is raised 10-cents on the low end of the range to $5.95 to $6.25 per bushel based on recently higher reported prices for feed barley.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2013-14 are projected 1.4-million tons higher. Global coarse grain imports for 2013-14 are raised 1.3-million tons. Global coarse grain ending stocks for 2013-14 are raised slightly.

OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2013-14 include higher imports and exports, reduced crush and reduced ending stocks compared with last month’s report. Soybean exports are raised 20-million bushels to a record 1.53-billion reflecting continued strong sales and shipments through February. Soybean crush is reduced 10-million bushels to 1.69-billion reflecting weaker-than-expected domestic soybean meal use through the first quarter of the marketing year. Soybean stocks are projected at 145-million bushels - down five-million from last month. Soybean oil stocks are reduced on lower production and increased exports. Other soybean oil changes include reduced use for biodiesel and an offsetting increase for food, feed, and other industrial use. Soybean and soybean product prices are all projected higher this month. The season-average price range forecast for soybeans is raised 25-cents on both ends of the range to $12.20 to $13.70 per bushel. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 36 to 39-cents per pound - up 1.5-cents at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are projected at $450 to $490 per short ton - up 25-dollars at the midpoint.

Global oilseed production for 2013-14 is projected at 504.3-million tons - down 1.7-million from last month - as reduced soybean and copra production are only partly offset by increases for rapeseed, sunflowerseed and peanuts. Foreign production - projected at 407-million tons - accounts for all of the change. Global oilseed supplies, exports and ending stocks for 2013-14 are projected lower this month - while crush is projected higher. Global oilseed stocks are projected at 84-million tons - down 1.9-million.

WHEAT: There are no changes to the 2013-14 U.S. all wheat supply and use projections this month. A 15-million bushel increase in projected Hard Red Spring wheat exports is offset by a decrease for Soft Red Winter wheat - with both changes reflecting the pace of sales and shipments. Projected ending stocks for both classes are adjusted accordingly. The projected season-average farm price for all wheat is raised 10-cents on the bottom end of the range to $6.75 to $6.95 per bushel based on recent strength in prices.

Global 2013-14 wheat supplies are raised slightly with a 0.8-million ton increase in world production. Strong demand in the Middle East and North Africa boosts 2013-14 world wheat imports three-million tons. World wheat consumption is raised slightly for 2013-14. Global wheat ending stocks are nearly unchanged.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2014 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as higher beef production is more than offset by lower pork, broiler, and turkey production. For beef - continued relatively large cattle placements in the first quarter are expected to result in higher slaughter in 2014. Coupled with heavier carcass weights and higher expected first-quarter cow slaughter - the beef production forecast is raised. Pork production is reduced from last month as higher carcass weights are insufficient to offset tighter supplies of hogs. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 28. Broiler production is lowered as hatchery data points to slower growth in eggs set and chicks placed. Turkey production is reduced as January slaughter and hatchery data were below expectations. Egg production forecasts for 2014 are unchanged - but historical data are adjusted to reflect recently published data. The beef import forecast for 2014 is unchanged from last month - but the export forecast is raised on strong sales to Asian markets. Pork imports are raised as prices are forecast higher - but the export forecast is reduced as high prices are expected to constrain sales. The broiler export forecast is raised as January exports were higher-than-expected. Turkey exports are lowered. The egg export forecast is unchanged. Cattle prices for 2014 are raised from last month - reflecting tight supplies and continued price strength for fed cattle. The hog price forecast is raised on expected tight supplies of market hogs and strong demand. Broiler and turkey prices are largely unchanged but the egg price is raised on higher first-quarter prices.

The milk production forecast for 2014 is unchanged from last month - but historical data are adjusted to reflect revised data for 2012 and 2013. Fat-basis exports for 2014 are raised on higher sales of cheese and butter. Skim-solid exports are unchanged as lower lactose and weaker-than-expected early year sales of nonfat dry milk (NDM) offset gains in cheese. Fat-basis imports are unchanged. Skim-solid imports are raised on strong demand for milk protein concentrates. Product price forecasts for cheese, butter, NDM and whey are higher - supported by strong demand and price strength to date. Class III and Class IV prices are raised on higher product prices. The all milk price is forecast at $21.40 to $22.00 per cwt.


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