USDA's Latest WASDE Report

USDA's Latest WASDE Report
Created by rrummel on 12/11/2013 11:31:52 AM

Corn Stocks up - Prices Down

COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. feed grain supplies for 2013-14 are raised slightly this month with a five-million bushel increase projected for corn imports. U.S. corn use for 2013-14 is projected higher with increases for food, seed, and industrial use and for exports. Corn used in ethanol production is projected 50-million bushels higher reflecting the strong pace of weekly ethanol production since mid-October. Exports are also projected 50-million bushels higher based on the pace of sales to date and higher expected global consumption. Projected U.S. ending stocks are lowered 95-million bushels. The 2013-14 season-average farm price for corn is projected 10-cents lower at the midpoint with the range narrowed to $4.05 to $4.75 per bushel based on prices reported to date. Average prices received by farmers - however - are expected to continue to be reported above prevailing cash bids well into early 2014 as some sales will reflect the higher forward prices available before harvesting.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2013-14 are projected 3.6-million tons higher. At 1,420.5-million tons - supplies are up 122.8-million from 2012-13 and 103.1-million above the previous record in 2011-12. Corn accounts for more than 80-percent of the increase over this period with 2013-14 world corn production up 101.4-million tons from last year. World barley and oats production are also raised - up 1.7-million tons and 0.8-million tons, respectively. World sorghum production is lowered 0.4-million tons. Global 2013-14 coarse grain consumption is raised 4.3-million tons with half of the increase from higher foreign corn consumption. Foreign barley and oats consumption are also raised. Global corn exports are raised 1.8-million tons. Global barley exports are raised 0.9-million tons. World corn ending stocks are projected 1.9-million tons lower.

Total U.S. oilseed production for 2013-14 is projected at 96.44-million tons - down slightly due to a small reduction in cottonseed. Although soybean production remains unchanged - 2013-14 supplies are raised 10-million bushels on stronger-than-expected early season soybean imports. Soybean exports are increased 25-million bushels to 1.475-billion reflecting record commitments (shipments plus outstanding sales) through November. Soybean crush is raised five-million bushels to 1.690-billion as strong foreign demand for soybean meal more than offsets a reduction in domestic soybean meal use. Soybean oil supplies are increased in line with higher crush. With total use unchanged - soybean oil stocks are increased 55-million pounds to 1.69-billion. Although total use is unchanged - soybean oil used for methyl ester is projected lower reflecting expanded production of non-ester based renewable diesel. Soybean ending stocks for 2013-14 are projected at 150-million bushels - down 20-million from last month. Prices for soybeans and soybean meal are projected higher this month. The U.S. season average soybean price range for 2013-14 is projected at $11.50 to $13.50 per bushel - up 35-cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $400 to $440 per short ton - up 25-dollars on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 38 to 42-cents per pound - down two-cents on both ends.

Global oilseed production for 2013-14 is projected at 502.3-million tons - up 2.9-million tons from last month. Foreign oilseed production accounts for most of the change with increases for soybeans, rapeseed and palm kernel only partly offset by reductions in cottonseed, sunflowerseed, and copra. Global soybean production is projected at a record 284.9-million tons - up 1.4-million. Global rapeseed production is projected at a record 70-million tons - up 2.1-million. Global oilseed trade is projected at 128.3-million tons - up 1.6-million from last month. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 82.8-million tons - up 2.1-million.

WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2013-14 are raised 10-million bushels this month with higher projected imports. Record production and higher exports for Canada are expected to add to wheat supplies in the United States. Imports are raised five-million bushels each for Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat. Projected exports for all wheat are unchanged - but minor adjustments are made by class with SRW wheat exports raised five-million bushels and HRS wheat exports lowered an offsetting amount. Projected ending stocks are raised 10-million bushels. The 2013-14 projected season-average farm price is lowered 10-cents at the midpoint with the range narrowed to $6.65 to $7.15 per bushel as near record world supplies and increased export competition reduce price prospects for U.S. wheat.

Global 2013-14 wheat supplies are raised 5.3-million tons to 887.3-million. This is up 32.1-million tons from last year - but nine-million tons below the record supplies of 2011-12. Global 2013-14 production is raised five-million tons. This is up 4.3-million tons from last month’s forecast and 5.4-million tons higher than the previous record in 1990-91 as excellent summer weather and an extended growing season boosted yields to record levels.

Global wheat trade for 2013-14 is raised this month with larger available supplies in key exporter countries and stronger demand expected for several importing countries. Global wheat ending stocks are projected 4.3-million tons higher.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecasts for total red meat and poultry production for both 2013 and 2014 are raised from November. For 2013 - small changes are made to the fourth quarter for the major species, based on slaughter data to date. The forecast for 2014 is raised based on higher expected cattle and hog carcass weights and higher cattle slaughter. No change is made to 2014 broiler production - but the turkey production forecast is reduced based on hatchery data. Egg production is reduced slightly for both 2013 and early 2014. Beef imports are lowered slightly for 2013 - but no change is made to 2014. Beef exports are raised for both 2013 and 2014. Pork imports are raised for both 2013 and 2014 based on estimates for the third quarter and early fourth quarter and expectations for slightly stronger imports in 2014. Pork exports for 2013 and 2014 are reduced from last month based on slightly weaker demand in Asia. The 2013 broiler export forecast is lowered slightly based on exports to date - but the forecast for 2014 is unchanged. Turkey exports are raised for 2013 - but the forecast for 2014 is unchanged. Cattle prices for 2013 and 2014 are raised from November as demand for fed cattle remains strong. Hog prices for 2013 are lowered as fourth-quarter prices have been slightly weaker-than-expected. The forecast for 2014 is unchanged. Broiler and turkey price forecasts for 2013 and 2014 are raised from last month. Demand for broiler meat is firm - supported by expected tight supplies of beef and moderate production increases. Turkey prices are expected to be supported by slower forecast growth in production. Egg prices are forecast higher for 2013 and 2014 - reflecting current price strength and lower forecast production.

The 2013 milk production forecast is reduced slightly from last month - based on recent estimates of cow numbers. The forecast for 2014 is raised as higher milk forecast prices and lower expected feed costs support a more rapid increase in cow numbers and output per cow. Fat basis imports are reduced for 2013 - but are unchanged for 2014. On a skims-solids basis - imports are raised in 2013 but unchanged for 2014. Exports are raised on a fats basis based on the strength of butterfat shipments to non-traditional markets. On a skims-solids basis - higher nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey exports are offset by lower lactose exports leading to a lower forecast for 2013 - but for 2014 - expected strength in NDM results in a higher skim-solids forecast. For 2013 - the cheese price forecast is reduced - reflecting current prices. However - strength in current prices for butter, NDM and whey resulted in higher price forecasts for those products. For 2014 - despite higher dairy production - demand strength in importing countries and improving domestic demand in the United States is expected to support prices for all products. The Class III milk price is unchanged for 2013 as lower forecast cheese prices offset higher whey prices - but the forecast is raised for 2014 based on higher forecast cheese and whey prices. The Class IV price forecast is raised for both years on higher butter and NDM prices. The all milk price is forecast at $19.90 to $20.00 per cwt for 2013 and $19.70 to $20.50 per cwt for 2014.

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